由于啤酒消费进入稳定增长状态，啤酒生产能力呈现过剩，竞争激烈，全行业盈利能力下降，出现大面积亏损。1998年资产利润率不到3%，40%的啤酒企业处于亏损状态，两级分化现象严重。少数企业凭借规模、技术、工艺、管理优势和良好的营销能力，在激烈的竞争中获得可观的收益水平。如排名前两位的燕京啤酒和青岛啤酒，1998年合计拥有资产约占啤酒行业的10%，完成产量虽然占全国总产量的6.8%，但利润指标所占比重高达37.6%。1994-1998年的4年中，啤酒产量增加了573万吨，企业数量减少了156家，企业平均产量提高86%。
ü 1998年－现在，兼并收购、资本圈地－几大啤酒集团产能规模及全国市场布局的战略竞争时代。这一阶段，啤酒消费进入低增长。据预测，2000-2010年年均增长5%，2010年年产量稳定在3000万吨。
1998年开始，青岛、华润和燕京三大啤酒集团开始在全国进行大规模的资本圈地行动，拉开了全国市场战略竞争和行业大整合进程。三大集团奉行相同的战略－通过并购地方品牌企业，使产能区域扩张和全国市场战略布局并行。但啤酒企业开始向规模化、集团化发展。收购当地企业后，将自己的管理机制、先进技术、产品配方、营销经验等输出到被收购企业中，在产品销售中仍然使用受到当地消费者偏爱的地方品牌。例如，青岛啤酒早在1994年开始在全国范围并购。至2001年底，青岛啤酒先后并购了全国40多家啤酒企业，包括北京五星啤酒和外资企业，1999年产量达到100万吨，2001年猛增到200万吨。华润啤酒自1993年控股沈阳雪花啤酒后，。2001年，华润收购第4位的四川兰剑(拥有四川10家地方啤酒企业,生产能力150万吨，年产销量70万吨，占2000年四川省啤酒产销量的85%)。近年来，三大啤酒集团的产能规模位次不断更替。燕京啤酒1995－1998年产量和市场占有率全国第1；1999－2000年，青岛啤酒升为第1，燕京啤酒退居第2，华润第3。2001年，华润啤酒跃居第1。

一．问题提出
二、模型
三．燕京啤酒财务保守行为分析
四．结论及实践意义

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